"In your hands, the birth of a new day... " (Limahl)

2 May 2007

Etholiad Cynulliad Cymru 2007 / National Assembly for Wales Elections

07:36 2 LAB GAINS on the Mid & West Regional list. Heard this on my tranny as I was mowing the lawn just now. Carwyn Jones safely home in Bridgend despite rumours to the contrary. Incredible 4th recount in the Vale of Glamorgan - just like it used to be in the late 1980s and early 1990s

Otherwise, I think this is positively the first and last time I shall blog an election. Excellent buzz to start with - TV plug from Blamerbell was a great laugh (biggest whoop of the night in my household). Threatened to be the most entertaining election ever at one point, especially when the rumours were flying around about Newport East etc early on.

I lost steam in the end, particularly as the flood of results emerged around 3am. Lost out big style to the better resourced and better informed Wales Elects and Blamerbell - not that I saw it as a competition.

Pleased with the amount of traffic during the night. Not overwhelming in terms of numbers of unique viewers, but it remained very consistent throughout the early hours. Also more than matched more established political bloggers in terms of sheer staying power, even if I didn't have much in terms of original insight.

05:55 PLAID GAIN: Mohammad Asghar, South Wales East. Carwyn Jones still in danger in Bridgend, likewise Jane Hutt in Vale of Glamorgan on a 3rd recount... likely to take a break for an hour or two before rounding up.

05:40 CON GAIN: Clwyd West. Swathes of the Welsh political map turn blue - but how will this affect the regional lists? Both ITV and BBC have Plaid a few seats ahead of Conservatives overall.

05:36 CON GAIN: Carmarthen West & South Pembs

05:27 PLAID GAIN: Aberconwy, with an impressive majority. Seems that Plaid have piled up votes in the heartland but spread thinly in other areas. Time to have a look at Scotland.

04:54 LAB GAIN: Wrecsam. Recounts in Carmarthen West and South Pembs (probable Lab hold, also Vale of Glamorgan - possible Con gain).

Guto Thomas intersting stats about BNP on the regional list - threatening a seat in the north.

Vaughan Roderick hinting that the Lib Dems may be DOWN in seats overall.

04:23: CON GAIN: Preseli Penfro. And at this juncture, its worth going round the blog scene. Whilst I faded a bit during the results rush, the Blamerbell Juggernaut has moved into another gear, as has Wales Elects.

Valleys Mam seems to have packed it in sometime after Plaid won Llanelli. Sanddef is hanging on grimly with a skeletal results service. Simo seems to have packed it in, as has Arsembly. Hogyn o Rachub, although an attractive and entertaining blog couldn't stomach the broader all-Wales scenario once the "sexy" Plaid seats of Llanelli and Ceredigion came in.

04:09 Rhodri Morgan sums it up by in saying "it looks better now than it did a few hours ago" for Labour.

04:08 I wasn't far off about the cut in Rhodri Morgan's majority - though I had expected Plaid to be the main challengers.

04:04 Eluned Morgan MEP (LAB) seems genuinely surprised about the extent of Plaid's majority in Llanelli.

03:57 Last hour has been a flurry of results. Most of them have gone against the Labour meltdown that I had anticipated yesterday.

Vaughan Roderick: split opposition in south Wales offers protection to Labour, even though they could fall to under a third of the national vote.

Richard Wyn Jones suggests things aren't looking amazing for the Lib Dems in terms of making gains on the regional lists.

0357: SNP GAINS: Dunfermline West, Gordon, Glasgow Govan


0351: Cut myself another slice of Battenburg cake as the Newport Declaring officer gets through the Welsh bit of the announcement

0348: IWJ talks of need for "Stable government"..."we are mature democrats"

03:16 Caerffili held by Labour - I'm slowly running out of adrenaline...

03:05 SNP GAIN: Fife Central

03:04: Three of my predictions shot to flames: Swansea West, Montgomeryshire, Vale of Clwyd all held. Vale of Clwyd could cost Wigley his seat?

02:53: Interesting point made earlier by Richard Wyn Jones saying that parties are targeting much more efficiently than in 1999.

02:51 Huw Edwards refers to the silver independent bar on the graph as a "silver tube"; Betsan refers to it as a "silver streak"

02:46 Dafydd Elis-Thomas on Radio Cymru states that Plaid's good performance "vindicates all of us who supported Ieuan Wyn Jones as group leader...his skills as a cymedrolwr (Moderator / negotiator) will be important in the next phase..."

02:38 TORTOISESHELL GAIN: TV PLUG BY BLAMERBELL!!! Might as well go to bed...

02:34 Remarkable story on Radio Cymru - that the MP for Vale of Clwyd, Chris Ruane has asked for a recount on behalf of Ann Jones.

02:24 SNP GAIN: Dundee West

02:19 TORTOISESHELL GAIN: correct prediction - Trish Law with increased maj.

02:08 Eluned Morgan MEP (LAB) "will celebrate anything tonight"

02:05 Irene James fails to conceal hatred of Plaid in victory speech.

Recount Vale of Clwyd.

Still waiting on Neath...

01:59: As Labour hangs on to Islwyn - just - S4C suggests Neath "is the big story" tonight before being cut off...

01:55 Starting to flag a bit, after being distracted by making comments to Blamerbell. My mistake. Sorry mate - this is the best election in ages and much of it is down to the blogging - I wouldn't be at it if it wasn't for you!

Interesting discourse on S4C between Vaughan Roderick and RWJ in Welsh. Vale of Clwyd regional list is excellent for Con, slightly dissappointing for Plaid.

However, RWJ says that if Tories make a sweep through Clwyd, this opens things up for Dafydd Wigley.

01:47 Con have beaten Lab on *regional list* vote in Vale of Clwyd

01:43 Simo says Neath turnout is up. Surely not the best news for Plaid?

01:34 Valleys Mam is reporting Plaid have hit Labour "hard" in Rhondda

01:20 Bugger. Just missed the main story - Rhodri Morgan's comments on BBC. Kevin Brennan MP (Cardiff West) trying to patch up whatever Rhodri said a few mins ago.

01:20 IWJ saying "completely disastrous night for Lab"

01:05 Remarkable comment by Blamerbell on telly. He seems to suggest that "getting the hang of blogging" equates to sending him e-mails. Tortoiseshell says: Miaaaaow!

01:00 Former Jock Brown bookmaker says "talk of Labour hold carmarthen West" (BBC)

00:54 BBC report Carwyn Jones in trouble in Bridgend.

Nia Griffiths MP (Llanelli) suggests LD voters in Llanelli have turned to Plaid Cymru and seems to have conceeded the seat

00:50 David Davies MP (Monmouth) very fluent comments in Welsh language on Radio Cymru. Feels "a bit sad" to leave Assembly. "I can't accept that the principle of devolution is a good thing for our country".

00:46 Dafydd Wigley hints Tories ahead in Clwyd West. Also suggests his rationale for standing was to raise Plaid's campaign across the north rather than get a seat himself. Says it would be "disgrace" if Plaid's rules had been relaxed to let him in as no.1 on the list.

00:45 John Stevenson (S4C) suggests Plaid vote in mid-Ynys Mon has held up well. BNP doing well on the list.

00:42 Wales Elects calling Ceredigion for Plaid

00:34 Paul Flynn MP hasn't given up the ghost on Newport East. Says "no evidence" that Newport West is under threat.

00:30 Plaid Cymru suggesting Tory gain in Delyn (S4C)

00:24 TORTOISESHELL GAIN - FIRST PLUG

00:22 Blamerbell interviewed about blogosphere on S4C. Tortoiseshell awaits first radio / telly / blog plug of the evening!

00:18 Delyth Evans (former Labour candidate) more or less admits that banning constituency candidates from standing on list has weakened National Assembly

00:14 (Radio Cymru) Adam Price says "We MUST beat the Tories tonight. It would be a tragedy for Welsh politics if we fail to beat the Tories". Somewhat different to what IWJ has said before?

00:06 Lab rumoured to win Swansea West, Tories to win Preseli with "substantial majority", suggest S4C

00:03 Conservatives talking up Clwyd West, say S4C

00:01 Trish Law rumoured as being safe

23:57 HMJ looks a bit less chipper in Llanelli, despite saying PC advance in town wards

23:47 I'm hungry, need a cup of T and there's a pile of dishes need doing. Going for a break

23:44: BBC say Lib Dems say Plaid Cymru doing particularly well in Carmarthen West & South Pembs

23:40 BBC Reports 24% turnout at one Wrexham polling booth

23:37 "Labour holding up strongly in Islwyn", say BBC

23:29 Vaughan Roderick on S4C reports that the Tories have called Newport East for the Lib Dems. Incredible - and would be sad end for one of Labour's young ministers. And what of Mike German on the list?

23:26 HMJ looks chipper on telly in Llanelli...???

23:25 Catrin Gerallt in Islwyn. Flagging up possible surprise, acknowledges possible impact of Etheridge (independent).

23:22 BBC Radio Cymru gives an honourable mensh to Welsh politics bloggers. Hwre!

Guto Thomas: "Blogging has exploded in Wales, this is not the case in Scotland, possibly because the fight up there has been conducted by more traditional media".


22:30: General frenzy running round the listening to Radio Cymru, Radio wales, BBC1, S4C and tuning into blogs. Also phoned my mate Hywel. Early whispers:

Dramatic rumours of 15% turnout in one of the Newport seats. Both Newport seats under threat for Labour.

Postal votes in Llanelli apparently neck and neck

Alun Pugh still in the hunt for Clwyd West, just told we could be up till 5am for that result.


21:30: Head off to co-op for election scooby snacks:

1 Bottle co-op ginger ale
1 Bottle Black Sheep Ale
1 Battenburg Cake
8 rashers smoked bacon (for the regional list counts 4am+)
1 packet fairtrade salted peanuts

18:15: Tortoiseshell Casts vote. Then off to Creative writing class.

May 2nd

Over the last few months, Welsh politics has been consumed by the blogosphere.

Blogs of drastically differing quality have emerged from the viewpoint of politicians, journalists, would-be politicians and would-be journalists. Some have withered on the vine already.

One blog that looks set to stay the course is Blamerbell Briefs, written by a well-informed journalism student in Cardiff. Today, he has assembled a semi-organised "blogathon" for Welsh bloggers for May 3rd, complete with a special icon (above).

In the spirit of Blamerbell's call to blog, I'll start with some wild guesses for May 3rd. It's basically the outer limit of what I think could conceivebly happen. I think we're certain for some wacky results, that's for sure.

I'll be tweaking this prediction from time to time, as I get twitchy before close of polls. Islwyn has already changed hands 3 times since I wrote the original post!

Some of the recounts may be a bit far-fetched but my general point is that there could be lots of recounts.

FINAL RESULT:

LABOUR: (18 constituency + 2 regional list )= 20 (-9)

CONSERVATIVE: (7 constituency + 8 regional list) = 15 (+4)

PLAID CYMRU: (10 constituency + 5 regional list) = 15 (+3)

LIBERAL DEMOCRAT: (3 constituency + 4 regional list) = 7 (+1)

INDEPENDENT: (2 constituency + 1 regional list) = 3 (+1)

Delyn, Vale of Clwyd, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Vale of Glamorgan, Cardiff North: CON GAINS. Dennis Balsom's "British Wales" will have a new lease of life for the first time since 1997, as traditionally "British identifying" areas of Wales reflect a UK trend.

Clwyd West: CON GAIN. Reported comments about creationism etc. by Darren Millar could, if anything, strengthen the Conservative core vote.

Ceredigion: PLAID HOLD. Differential turnout will see Elin Jones home with a slightly reduced majority - 2,500 votes or therabouts. Rhys Llwyd provides an erudite account of the constituency's history. I agree with his conclusions for 2007.

Carmarthen West & South Pembs: PLAID GAIN - though by less than a 1,000 votes.

Cardiff West: LAB HOLD - but expect to see Rhodri Morgan's majority slashed to 3,000 or thereabouts by Plaid Cymru.

Blaenau Gwent: PEOPLE'S VOICE HOLD. Trish Law to slightly increase her majority.

Wrecsam: IND HOLD. With a relatively unchanged majority of 900 for Marek

RECOUNTS

Montgomeryshire - LIB DEM HOLD by 200

Islwyn: LAB HOLD, by 250

Clwyd South: LAB HOLD, by 200

Neath - LAB HOLD by 250

Bridgend - LAB HOLD by 250

Llanelli - PLAID GAIN by 50

Aberconwy - PLAID GAIN by 250

Caerffili - PLAID GAIN by 150.

Swansea West - PLAID GAIN by 50